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I was tired too. What is reported is hard to use to draw any conclusions. Right now it's 2-4 times more lethal than a regular flu season and no end in site.

 

I might add that NEVER have I see such measures taken (even world wide) for the flu season. You had the option of a flu shot and that was pretty much it. If smart you avoided people with it and washed you hands more and lived with it. Never were countries shut down so I take this seriously.. 

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9 hours ago, datzenmike said:

 

 

 

 

 

  Today there are 129,226 dead from it in 4.5 months?. The common flu kills 35,000 (2019)- 60,000 (2018) per season. Around .1% die of the millions who get the flu. Confirmed covid cases are 2,776,366. Now some of these positives are going to die off in the next weeks but 129,226 dead is 6% death rate. More testing and more positives would dilute the 6%.

I can't find one source that comes up with your 6% until you count the over 80 year old category.Exaggerate much ? I've read that this flu season has also been a continuance of the last one which escalates the numbers.How convenient.Shouldn't we be starting over as normal ?

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Check my math. (you never know I was tired) 2,77,366 cases (we know of) and 129,26 dead is 6% death rate. Maybe off track but I'm not deliberately exaggerating. As I said more positives would dilute this. There may have been a million more who had it and didn't know it and right there that cuts the 6% by 1/3?

 

57 minutes ago, datzenmike said:

I was tired too. What is reported is hard to use to draw any conclusions. Right now it's 2-4 times more lethal than a regular flu season and no end in site.

 

I might add that NEVER have I see such measures taken (even world wide) for the flu season. You had the option of a flu shot and that was pretty much it. If smart you avoided people with it and washed you hands more and lived with it. Never were countries shut down so I take this seriously.. 

 

Again, hard to draw conclusions from the numbers out there, I admit that. Trying to find an estimated death rate and found a quote that it's 10 x more than regular flu or 1%.  Do you have a number or is everything BS?

 

Then there are deniers. People that deny everything and dispute hospitalizations and testing numbers. Everything is fake news to them. This above all else is probably why the infection rate is going through the roof down there.

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Haven't said I was, just an opinion. What's you opinion on my numbers? Is it around  2,77,366 / 129,26 = 6% or are you a denier? and don't want to know. Do you have better numbers? Maybe cases divided by deaths is false for determining the death rate? It's ok to be wrong.

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I don't where you came up with that.Nothing i see is even close to that other than numbers for the very elderly. And that doesn't even come up at 6%  I'm no covid denier,it's there alright,i've never claimed it wasn't.I do have doubt about some of the stats they provide us with.One that stands out is counting the same person as multiple positives when they test them again and they still have it.Another is listing terminally ill patients as Covid deaths when they really just died with Covid,not from it.If death rate were 6% the media would be on that like flies on shit,they're not though.Do you have a link to back your numbers ? 

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So how about the NHL resuming games? Not like the 1200+ players and whoever else is accompanying will stay holed up a hotel room. Bit of a concern with that, they'll be coming from all over the US & some beyond. Test positive once here & it's too late.

 

Sports is a reward & entertainment, not essential. Resume AFTER things are settled. I have my seasons tickets & I'll wait out a season. I'm 15 yr STH. IMO

 

2020 CFL season. The 2020 CFL season is scheduled to be the 63rd season of the Canadian Football League (CFL). It was originally scheduled to begin on June 11, 2020, although due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, the beginning of the regular season has been postponed indefinitely.
 
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28 minutes ago, john510 said:

I don't where you came up with that.Nothing i see is even close to that other than numbers for the very elderly. And that doesn't even come up at 6%  I'm no covid denier,it's there alright,i've never claimed it wasn't.I do have doubt about some of the stats they provide us with.One that stands out is counting the same person as multiple positives when they test them again and they still have it.Another is listing terminally ill patients as Covid deaths when they really just died with Covid,not from it.If death rate were 6% the media would be on that like flies on shit,they're not though.Do you have a link to back your numbers ? 

 

Already stated number of reported cases divided by deaths from it. Is there another method???

 

Not all elderly are terminally ill. Where did you get that? Being elderly is bad enough.... they grew up when smoking was popular and have respiratory problems and others. Christ when you're elderly and have one foot in the grave it doesn't take much of a push. Usually it's pneumonia. If you were dying of cancer and pneumonia finished you off then you died of pneumonia NOT cancer. Regular influenza does exactly the same thing to the elderly. This point sounds like denial to me. 

 

 

 

7 hours ago, datzenmike said:

I was tired too. What is reported is hard to use to draw any conclusions. Right now it's 2-4 times more lethal than a regular flu season and no end in site.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, datzenmike said:

 

Again, hard to draw conclusions from the numbers out there, I admit that. Trying to find an estimated death rate and found a quote that it's 10 x more than regular flu or 1%.  Do you have a number or is everything BS?

 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, datzenmike said:

Check my math. (you never know I was tired) 2,77,366 cases (we know of) and 129,26 dead is 6% death rate. Maybe off track but I'm not deliberately exaggerating. As I said more positives would dilute this. There may have been a million more who had it and didn't know it and right there that cuts the 6% by 1/3?

 

If you went and were tested and found you were positive for anti bodies, why in the fuck would you go back several times to get tested again??????? Do you have a number showing a trend for people going back more than the one time for being positive????? If you were the tester, why the fuck would you count this as a new positive and not merely a confirmation????? This point sounds like denial to me also.

 

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23 minutes ago, EDM620 said:

So how about the NHL resuming games? Not like the 1200+ players and whoever else is accompanying will stay holed up a hotel room. Bit of a concern with that, they'll be coming from all over the US & some beyond. Test positive once here & it's too late.

 

Sports is a reward & entertainment, not essential. Resume AFTER things are settled. I have my seasons tickets & I'll wait out a season. I'm 15 yr STH. IMO

 

2020 CFL season. The 2020 CFL season is scheduled to be the 63rd season of the Canadian Football League (CFL). It was originally scheduled to begin on June 11, 2020, although due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, the beginning of the regular season has been postponed indefinitely.
 

 

AFL Follow the money!!!!!! Too much money being lost to worry about a pandemic. A real patriot would tighten his belt and do the right thing.

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I haven’t watched American FootBall in years. I say do the right. 
 The Pro-Athlete should shut their pie holes and entertain so the real workers can feed their families.  That AFL infrastructure employs a lot of regular people.

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11 minutes ago, datzenmike said:

 

Already stated number of reported cases divided by deaths from it. Is there another method???

 

Not all elderly are terminally ill. Where did you get that? Being elderly is bad enough.... they grew up when smoking was popular and have respiratory problems and others. Christ when you're elderly and have one foot in the grave it doesn't take much of a push. Usually it's pneumonia. If you were dying of cancer and pneumonia finished you off then you died of pneumonia NOT cancer. Regular influenza does exactly the same thing to the elderly. This point sounds like denial to me. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you went and were tested and found you were positive for anti bodies, why in the fuck would you go back several times to get tested again??????? Do you have a number showing a trend for people going back more than the one time for being positive????? If you were the tester, why the fuck would you count this as a new positive and not merely a confirmation????? This point sounds like denial to me also.

 

I don't know Mike,i don't run that show.I'm just reading numerous sources of information provided by Google.WHO,CDC etc..I did find something that stated mortality is about 1.4% on average.There are sources saying it's less.Your mileage may vary.

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                                                          Not sure if someone mentioned this already -

                 How many deaths are written up as Covid caused,when that might

not have been the cause of death.  

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1 hour ago, john510 said:

I don't know Mike,i don't run that show.I'm just reading numerous sources of information provided by Google.WHO,CDC etc..I did find something that stated mortality is about 1.4% on average.There are sources saying it's less.Your mileage may vary.

 

Well what are your figures for total positive tests as of say, today. What's the total deaths attributed to covid as of say today. As you can see the death rate will lag the positive tests slightly. For sure some of the positives will end up dead. What does Google.WHO,CDC etc tell you?

 

1.4% is 14 times more lethal that influenza @ 0.1%.  So if 30,000 a year (I'm using the lower number from 2018, it was over 55K last year) from normal flu then 420,000 to deaths from co-vid is possible. Naturally herd immunity and vaccinations, distancing, closures and masks will never allow it to go this high. Fourteen times more lethal is something.

 

Even 0.7% or half is 210,000... again hopefully distancing, closures, masks and such would lower this.

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3 hours ago, datzenmike said:

 

Already stated number of reported cases divided by deaths from it. Is there another method???

 

 

Since you've said check your math at least a couple of times, 129,226/2,77,366 would be a death rate of approximately 4.66%. Unless there is another method you're using of course...

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2 hours ago, angliagt said:

                                                          Not sure if someone mentioned this already -

                 How many deaths are written up as Covid caused,when that might

not have been the cause of death.  

I believe there could be areas where different things lead to false stats.  Usually there is.  But in general I think this is simply being used to defend the notion that this is some false flag, non disease.  Similar to how no-one dies of falling from an airplane, they die from landing on the ground.  Covid patients will dis from oxygen deprivation/pneumonia or other resulting diagnoses from Covid, or "presumed" CoVid.  And that rubbed some peoples feathers wrong too.  We presume many deaths were covid without testing because we were in the midst of a pandemic and test kits were hard to come by, so medical experts were instructed to classify deaths without testing.  For me that was an appropriate decision, but others who are hell bent on proving they don't need to wear a mask see it as some manipulation of data and statistical naziism. 

 

      What I do know is the USA has for some odd reason that I can't possibly try to make sense of, has turned something as obvious as a disease into a political subject.  Why the fuck is it a democrat/republican issue?  If there is anything that stands a chance of being unpolitical its a pandemic.  This is a huge fucken Christo scale red flag demonstrating our dysfunction.  Lets pull together are stop this shit.  It takes action and it takes everyone.  Hawaii took the shit more seriously than any US state, and as a result our numbers stayed way low.  We have a major advantage with ocean borders, but our main industry is tourism, so it wasn't an easy call to make closing air travel and cruises.  But even the cases that got here died out fast because nearly every person you see wears a mask.  Masks are fucking pointless if others don't wear them, but they work amazingly well when everyone does.  This here is the problem with the freedom debate.  We are free, but not free to shoot others.  We are free, but not free to drive our car into someones house.  We are free, but not free to steal peoples Datsuns.  We are free, but should we be free to spread preventable disease?  The comparisons to the flu are getting annoyingly close to accurate.  If we did act like an educated responsive species we could have kept this virus to small enough numbers that mutation would have been slow to occur.  But instead we all got political stupid and spread this shit like it made us woke.  

 

        It's just one of those rare occasions where you might as well be safe instead of sorry.  Even if you know more than the medical and scientific community.  

 

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To ellaborate slightly on the Flu comparison.  There are many variations of Influenza A, and B.  So many that no vaccine can tackle them all.  So they cocktail a few and try to predict which ones will be prevalent next year.  Sometimes they are right about those predictions, and usually they are just wrong but sell them anyway.   Covid could have been a single vaccine and done virus.  But after enough mutation we will have what we have with Influenza.  Many competing strains that are unique enough that our immune system doesn't ID them as the same thing.  Thus needing many vaccines to cover all of them.  We'd really hoped to not have that happen and we are watching it happen.  

 

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2 hours ago, datzenmike said:

 

Well what are your figures for total positive tests as of say, today. What's the total deaths attributed to covid as of say today. As you can see the death rate will lag the positive tests slightly. For sure some of the positives will end up dead. What does Google.WHO,CDC etc tell you?

 

1.4% is 14 times more lethal that influenza @ 0.1%.  So if 30,000 a year (I'm using the lower number from 2018, it was over 55K last year) from normal flu then 420,000 to deaths from co-vid is possible. Naturally herd immunity and vaccinations, distancing, closures and masks will never allow it to go this high. Fourteen times more lethal is something.

 

Even 0.7% or half is 210,000... again hopefully distancing, closures, masks and such would lower this.

 

1. CDC has outright stated the death rate is ~0.3%. A fatality rate of 0.26% was the flu fatality rate for a bad flu year, for example 2017-2018.

2. Dividing positive tests by deaths to get a rate is inherently flawed as it ignores asymptomatic cases or people who didn't get tested as the symptoms were mild. Going back to what we saw earlier with antibody testing that could be undercounting by a factor greater than 10.

 

 

 

Relevant part for #1

For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.

 

Sources for #1 from a variety of biases confirming this number

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/06/05/fact-check-cdc-estimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/27/cdc-suggests-coronavirus-fatality-rate-higher-than-flus-but-at-least-8x-lower-than-initial-estimates/

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article

 

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Edited by Dguy210
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32 minutes ago, datzenmike said:

1/ Fauchi ? said 0.1% so I went with that smaller number. FWIW He also said covid was 10 X more than the regular flue.  

 

2/ I did say the more tests would dilute my guestimate.

 

1. 0.1% is considered the "average" for a flu year but it fluctuates a whole lot. I gave the bad flu year number to put it into context, no one even notices really a difference between 0.1-0.3% and 0.26% falls within the variability of just the flu.

 

2. Hence the numbers I gave, more tests would heavily dilute it, to the point where the guesstimate is widely inaccurate. The numbers from the CDC fall within what we have seen over a wide range, for example the off cited number I was giving of about 0.5% over and over again based on about 6 pieces of data months ago (April) and now we have better data that is within the ballpark (a factor of 2 is considered a "good guess" i.e., 0.1-0.26% for example).

Edited by Dguy210
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10 minutes ago, datzenmike said:

Why are there dips every 7 days or so? Why not like the Mar 16 through April 7th

 

No idea.

Dip appears to be every Tuesdays and Wednesdays with a two day spread. 

Best guess: something to do with how the data is collected most likely, probably related to what is closed or reduced staff on weekends with some kind of delay.

 

Here is how they source the data, but it doesn't breakdown why this trend is seen. Since it is repeated it most likely is a data artifact of some sort. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/about/

 

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