Covid-19 Prepared?

[a.d._510_n_ok]

[BrothersGarage]

[datzenmike]

2 hours ago, Mattndew76 said:

I cruised by the park yesterday evening to see if the caution tape had been put back up. 
 

Nope. Someone had wadded it all up and trashed it. A couple families were using the park too. 👍🏻‼️

 

they had spray bottles and rags as well. 

 

 

 

I walked by it this AM and it has a sign but the red tape is thankfully gone.

[Mattndew76]

I hope this keeps going. 

 

I hope they take the tape down and there is no reason for legal risk.

[datzenmike]

Will do followups over the next few weeks to be sure it takes.

 

 

[Mattndew76]

City announced they won’t enforce park restrictions anymore. Too many parents getting angry about rules that are based on no factual information.

[datzenmike]

Just walked by 10 min ago. There were 3 cars parked and at least 3-4 people getting in while the others were pulling away. I don't know what they were doing there.

[Mattndew76]

Official Cars or Just regular people cars?

[datzenmike]

It's a small park space by the water. There's no signage on the highway a block away so unless you found it by accident they are probably locals. They were laughing and seemed to have had a good time. Maybe a picnic supper. There 4-5 picnic tables and a covered stone fireplace where you could bar-b-q if you wanted. Taping it off was just stupid. Rarely are there more than one family using it even if several tables are occupied.

[Mattndew76]

I’m pretty stoked that people are starting to ignore these emergency orders. Just keep your camera going should you be approached. The Karen do gooders have to be exposed in my opinion. 

[datzenmike]

I have a feeling it'll never be the same and how we live forever changed. We've been extremely lucky, and lax. Until there is a vaccine or everyone has had it, covid will always be around sleeping in some shit hole 3th world country just a plane ride away like small pox used to be The world is too small and the next outbreak will need to be managed much better.

[Ratwagon1600]

Dafuq?  Really?  Why not just feed your dick into a blender on high speed?

 

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/covid19-parties-lead-to-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state/news-story/43375b3e838f26383495f3925912f569

[Ratwagon1600]

3 hours ago, datzenmike said:

I have a feeling it'll never be the same and how we live forever changed. We've been extremely lucky, and lax. Until there is a vaccine or everyone has had it, covid will always be around sleeping in some shit hole 3th world country just a plane ride away like small pox used to be The world is too small and the next outbreak will need to be managed much better.

one of the smartest, and most accurate things I think I've ever seen you post.

[Dguy210]

5 hours ago, datzenmike said:

I have a feeling it'll never be the same and how we live forever changed. We've been extremely lucky, and lax. Until there is a vaccine or everyone has had it, covid will always be around sleeping in some shit hole 3th world country just a plane ride away like small pox used to be The world is too small and the next outbreak will need to be managed much better.

 

Yeah, no. It doesn't work that way at all. The spread is really only a problem while the virus is novel. Once a decent percentage of the population has had it and developed immunity it becomes much less of an issue, you can think of each resistant person as a roadblock to spread (herd immunity). While novel anyone can be infected and spread it, once a certain percentage of the population has resistance to it the spread is severely hampered.

 

And I won't even it get into the extensive evidence that the mortality rates and models originally used are horribly flawed bullshit. 

 

The very short form is the best evidence (from now multiple sources and methodologies) shows the mortality rate across all ages as an average is about 0.1- 0.5% (this likely varies for a bunch of reasons I won't get into), but lets say overall average is about 0.5% and with (simplifying this a bit) infectivity about 1.5 times greater than the flu, mostly as it is novel. For some comparison the flu averages a mortality rate of 0.1% and a bad flu year like 2017-2018 is about 0.3%. 

 

In reality aside from the repercussions to the response to it (shutdowns etc...) the actual disease consequences will become less and less of an issue with time.

 

Now for credentials: I've mentioned I'm a PhD biologist before, but I actually work as a virologist. There is actually a whole long ass story about what my areas of specialization are and why they vary so much- short form is some stuff pays better. In fact we've been pulled off other projects to work on this happy bullshit which I'm less than thrilled with to be honest. What's funnier is I'm actually married to one of the original SARS researchers so the work I'm doing now is extremely similar to what she was doing many years ago. 

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Dguy210

[Draker]

Yeah ok, Anderson pooper. 
 

😂 

 

of course I’m kidding. I know you’ve got creds.
 

its true, If you actually filter through the news this data is out there. Its not what sells advertising though. 

[Draker]

For real though, thanks for posting that. I’ve read a lot of those same figures. But I don’t know shit about it. I do what most people do.. rely on someone else’s work and make a judgment on the potential bias. Then cross reference with other studies and try to form an opinion.
 

actually most people probably just assume everything they read from their go to news source is the truth and leave it at that.
 

And really good point about the spread rate vs flu, never thought about that. One is new, one is not. Makes a difference.

 

 

 

[Dguy210]

27 minutes ago, Draker said:

For real though, thanks for posting that. I’ve read a lot of those same figures. But I don’t know shit about it. I do what most people do.. rely on someone else’s work and make a judgment on the potential bias. Then cross reference with other studies and try to form an opinion.
 

actually most people probably just assume everything they read from their go to news source is the truth and leave it at that.
 

And really good point about the spread rate vs flu, never thought about that. One is new, one is not. Makes a difference.

 

 

 

 

For obvious reasons I've been keeping up on it and reading the actual data, the news is absolute crap. Just the fluctuation in the "death toll" is enough to set off all my bullshit detectors and data from China I would consider especially suspect for obvious reasons.

 

I will be blunt too, some of the studies coming out have certain issues with how the data is collected or the nature of the tests and many of the "numbers" I've seen thrown around seem to be not as well supported as I would like as everything is still in its infancy and being rushed. But even with those types of errors you can account for that, and that is something peer-review definitely does, and the conclusions I've seen don't support the official story. Hence the number I gave for mortality rate is actually quite conservative because I'm taking into consideration errors in testing, errors in sampling and stats, and inherent errors in the testing method. 

 

So although you can have issues with a single study, when multiple studies all start giving roughly the same data, especially with very different samples and testing methodologies my confidence in that information being "accurate" increases even if their might be issues with a single method. At last count I was basing 0.5% on about 6 different studies done with a couple different testing methodologies (PCR and antibody) over several different countries and groups. To the best of my understanding of the current evidence this is a good working number. If new and better studies come out giving different information I will adjust that, I would not be surprised at all if there are strain differences or many confounding factors we don't know about yet. 

 

What is worse is people will believe something even when presented with evidence showing it is crap because that is the easy way and most people don't want to think. They want a spoon-fed answer and something to calm them down. Every once and a while I'll feel Quixotic stirrings and decide to post on some fuckbook forum with actual evidence but it mostly goes to deaf ears of people ignoring data and relying on their "feelings" to make decisions. NO MATTER if you can pretty much absolutely prove something people will still stick to their worldview even in the face of overwhelming evidence. 

 

Hell, much of the mask wearing info people are being told has serious issues and very minor effects on spread unless done in a very specific manner, but it does have a nice placebo effect in calming the population.  For the record a properly fitted N95 is about the only thing that really works to a really large degree (some homebrew stuff that was tested with very specific materials seemed about as efficient, most wasn't though). Those surgical masks work for a little while but are way less efficient for a bunch of reasons I'm skipping here due to space, bandannas and cloth masks are just slightly better than nothing... but people feel better about it and in control so they ARE useful for that reason. 

 

Drives me insane, especially as taking in new data and adjusting my working model of something is just very strongly baked into my being. I'm happy when someone can show me good evidence that supports that my understanding of how something functions is incorrect, because then I can correct it and get closer to what the "truth" is. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Dguy210

[john510]

9 hours ago, Ratwagon1600 said:

Dafuq?  Really?  Why not just feed your dick into a blender on high speed?

 

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/covid19-parties-lead-to-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state/news-story/43375b3e838f26383495f3925912f569

At the end of the article it says there are only two confirmed cases ? How is that a "spike" in Covid-19 cases ? More bullshit from the media.

[a.d._510_n_ok]

 

went to the creek this morning and then to town. gun stores are packed, plant nurseries are packed, restaurants packed (inside and out even with social distancing) and traffic is insane everywhere and we've not technically re-opened yet.

[datzenmike]

 

2 hours ago, john510 said:

At the end of the article it says there are only two confirmed cases ? How is that a "spike" in Covid-19 cases ? More bullshit from the media.

 

I saw that and rolled my eyes.

 

 

 

Dguy210 I'm willing to listen.

 

If this is no worse than a regular flu season (or even close) why are the hospitals in major cities overwhelmed? This doesn't happen in regular flu seasons does it?

 

Would you say that elderly deaths are higher this year compared to the regular flu season? 

 

If this is basically BS why is everything shut down? If money talks and makes the world turn then what's the end game here if this is just made up or an over reaction? Wall street and banks just wouldn't allow it, they are loosing money!!!.

 

 

The reason no one believes your facts is you can't convince the listener that they are facts. (even if accurate) Real and accurate or not, they are just buried under all the BS. Today, why would anyone believe you? I don't believe anything I hear or am very skeptical and just nod. Who the fuck can you trust for real news. ?????????????????????????

 

 

On herd immunity. About 60% is needed, an insane amount if there is no vaccine. This means that of 330,000,000 ? people in the US, 198,000,000 need to have immunity and (by your number of 0.5% death rate) 990,000 will have died to grant us this????

[Farmer]

On 5/4/2020 at 9:25 PM, Mattndew76 said:

Someone tore down the caution tape at the park today and let the kids play. Pretty sure that wasn't supposed to happen lol. Later on in the day the Sheriff was sitting in his doughnut van making sure no one else did it again.

 

I think tomorrow I might go cut the tape down and let my girls play.

Our county Sheriff put out an statement stating they will not be enforcing the governors stay home orders.. but just ask people to take necessary precautions. 

[jbirds510]

it was important to me at the time to share but noone cares..If you want to know how to save yourself. PM me ill give you the links to the data.

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by jbirds510
im a spelling ang grammar trainwreck.

[datzenmike]

2 minutes ago, jbirds510 said:

Im going to just say it how it is, shelter in place is a liberal concept, you the healthy cant go about your business because others who need the extra protection might get sick...what??? 

 

 

Unfortunately you can't know for sure you or anyone are healthy, no sure easy way. You're going to trust someone else out there on the street who may be a douche and just doesn't give a fuck? Everyone that caught covid was healthy before and some may have even been symptom free. It's unclear when you become contagious to others so you don't know if you have been exposed or are exposing others. The last thing you want to do is bring something home for your elderly grandparents or kids. If you haven't had covid, use some common sense, avoid crowds and keep your distance and you'll probably be alright. If you can put off being on a plane, train, bus trip then do so and certainly wear a mask, don't touch anything and hand sanitize if you do. At least for the next while.   

[jbirds510]

2 hours ago, datzenmike said:

 

Unfortunately you can't know for sure you or anyone are healthy, no sure easy way. You're going to trust someone else out there on the street who may be a douche and just doesn't give a fuck? Everyone that caught covid was healthy before and some may have even been symptom free. It's unclear when you become contagious to others so you don't know if you have been exposed or are exposing others. The last thing you want to do is bring something home for your elderly grandparents or kids. If you haven't had covid, use some common sense, avoid crowds and keep your distance and you'll probably be alright. If you can put off being on a plane, train, bus trip then do so and certainly wear a mask, don't touch anything and hand sanitize if you do. At least for the next while.   

meh. im done.

Edited May 7, 2020 by jbirds510
whatevs

[jbirds510]

blah blah blah.

Edited May 7, 2020 by jbirds510