paradime Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 I love the idea of throwing a little money at an esoteric investment with truly unknown potential. A little while ago my Dad threw some money at a weed processing start up in Ashland Oregon. I'd like to know what criteria you used in your risk analysis of crypto currencies though. It's a virtual pandoras box of influences that affects the relative value of one government controlled fiat currency to another. I have no idea how those forces would effect a purely conceptual electronic currency. For starters, on the stock market shares of Bitcoin are valued in USD, so if our dollar tanks in relation to yours, how would that affect the value of Bitcoin in AUD? Right now, it's being traded as corporate shares, not as a currency so how and when will it be transitioned as such. The complexities and unknowns are endless, but in my psychological analysis, I think irrational exuberance is how Bitcoin is being valued right now. It's like everything else traded on the stock market, so that means the fear / greed principle dictates what investors will pay for a purely conceptual unit of value. :confused: Still trying to wrap my head around that one. BTW, I checked and no, I can't buy bear at my corner market with any form of crypto currency... yet. Good luck man, and may the winds of fortune be at your back. 1 Quote Link to comment
datzenmike Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 I’m also researching what potential there could be in the medicinal cannabis trade. Medicinal???? You mean like back in the past how a shot of brandy was called 'for medicinal purposes'??? I know lots of people who smoke for that reason and make all kinds of excuses "Oh my pain just went away, I'm not nauseous now, I have to take it regular to do any good"... but only a few who are honest and say they just smoke to get rekt. Yeah I used to drink cause it solved all my problems. I'd call that medicinal. Same today.... people can call it what they want but it's just escapism. Just be honest. 1 Quote Link to comment
racerx Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Even coke or real coke was medicinal. Quote Link to comment
paradime Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Medicinal???? You mean like back in the past how a shot of brandy was called 'for medicinal purposes'??? I know lots of people who smoke for that reason and make all kinds of excuses "Oh my pain just went away, I'm not nauseous now, I have to take it regular to do any good"... but only a few who are honest and say they just smoke to get rekt. Yeah I used to drink cause it solved all my problems. I'd call that medicinal. Same today.... people can call it what they want but it's just escapism. Just be honest. https://medicalmarijuana.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000884 Even if it's just keeping people off opioid and is nothing but a feel good placebo, it's one of the most effective drugs out there for treating a broad rang of illness. And in many cases it has real measurable physical effects like in treating glaucoma. Yes the Western medical model started on some asinine unscientific assumptions, but I've never heard that drinking does anything for you other than lower inhibition and impulse control. I know plenty of people who've drank themselves to death, but the same can't be said about pot. 1 Quote Link to comment
datzenmike Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 It lowers the impulse to give a shit about Russian hacking . 1 Quote Link to comment
paradime Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Funny, but not the place for politics Mike. RTW gave us a thread for that too, so lets respect his wishes in this thread's OP. Like it or not there's huge profit being made in weed Alcohol and tobacco, and out of the three of them pot is by far the safest. Quote Link to comment
racerx Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 At least weed easest the pain. Quote Link to comment
paradime Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Some say it makes them more paranoid and analytical. For some, alcohol is a depressant and others a stimulant. There's no one size fits all when it comes to psychotropic drugs. Quote Link to comment
240zness Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 Rick Simpson Oil.. THC and the other thousands of canibanoids are wonder drugs. Not FDA approved Legalization is a scam (over manipulated , now taxed) Bitcoin .. I'm a no , cuz artificial intel Investments..? Short something Quote Link to comment
paradime Posted January 30, 2018 Report Share Posted January 30, 2018 240zness with sound financial advise. Shorting something now, or soon is likely to make you that crazy money, and a far safer bet. Bitcoin looks attractive in a bull market, but when the champagne runs out and the hangover sets in, it's beauty will evaporates and you're left in a room with a $13 whore. Quote Link to comment
Ratwagon1600 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Some interesting points raised by a number of people. Unfortunately (Mike) a pretty narrow minded view when it comes to medeicianl cannabis. There is innumerable evidence to suggest medicinal cannabis has a range of benefits, particularly for those who are long term chronic cancer sufferers. Despite the fact the American FDA is yet to approve marijuana as a "medicine"; its benefits speak for themselves. https://www.drugabuse.gov/publications/drugfacts/marijuana-medicine Im looking at a diverse range of investment options; this is one of the many. Remeber naysayers, at the end of the day it is MY money :thumbup: 3 Quote Link to comment
john510 Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Since it's your money Ratwagon i will advise you to invest every penny you have in bitcoin,now's the time.Get in while it's still cheap.It's predicted to only go up from here. Quote Link to comment
Draker Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Do it.. and make us proud! 1 Quote Link to comment
datzenmike Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 I don't doubt the benefits, I doubt the people that 'need' it. The recreational usage by far outweighs the medicinal uses. When it's freely available you'll hear less about how well it works. Quote Link to comment
racerx Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Put it this way do you really think the govt can stop marijuana. Heck these drug lords are growing them in national parks. Quote Link to comment
Ratwagon1600 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 I'd like to know what criteria you used in your risk analysis of crypto currencies though. A quick summary below: One of my identified risks is "a massive devaluation in cryptocurrencies I have already invested in". I then look at causal factors for this identified risk i.e. (a couple below so this post doesnt become war and peace): 1. New and emerging cryptocurrencies cause devaluation of older currencies. 2. Security flaws with Blockchain technology cause critical market devaluation. I then identify the consequence/impact if this risk occurs i.e.: 1. Initial investment critically devalued to make and future consideration of crypto holdings untenable (Ive done my dough). 2. Security hardening of blockchain technology requires a new support platform (basically the whole technology that underpins the crypto currency system has to be rewritten from scratch which could take years). I then look at any Initial risk treatments that may be already in place to mitigate the risk (bit hard with causal factor number one as there are new and emerginging crypto coins continuing to come on the market), however with number two the blockchain technology has been around for a while and hasnt gone tits up (yet). I then look at if there are any recommended or additional risk treatments I can apply and one of these was to "only invest in known crypto currencies" (Bitcoin and Ethereum being the two). After this I look at the risk ratings which initially for this risk criteria the initial consequence of this risk happening was major according to my assesment (remember risk assesments can be quite subjective). I then look at the likelihood which I rated as possible. from this, using a risk calculation matrix, I come up with an initial risk level of significant. I then look at the reccomended risk treatments, my own appetite for acceptance of the initial risk rating and apply a residual risk rating. As I am only investing a relatively small sum of money (one of my risk treatments) I decided based on this and my acceptance of the risk(s) that the residual risk rating was medium, and a gamble I am prepared to take. The above is a short summation of how I did my risk assesment. To explain it comprehesively would take pages and pages of shit which no one would read. Hopefully this explains a little bit of the madness behind my risk assessment. 2 Quote Link to comment
paradime Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Very stout analysis from an investigative mind there RTW. :thumbup: It's missing a key element though, taking any investment risk is balanced by it's future potential for profit. I thought I'd dig a little deeper into the financial structure of Bitcoin and how they brought it to Wall St. Wether evaluating startup IPOs or existing companies I start by looking at their price earnings ratio. With crypto currencies, it has a share $dollar value but no way to measure earnings. Bitcoin is a purely conceptual entity in a virtual startup market aimed at circumventing nation state's central banking and government reporting systems. Since a coins only "real" value is derived by the participating public's collective trust in it's unit value in cyber space, the only thing to evaluate here is it's millennial sex appeal, the investing public's perceptions, and the financial establishment's ability to tolerate it. In the absence of a PE ratio, in crypto land they came up with their Network Value to Transactions Ratio. Although no profit is generated, it basically uses the transactional money flowing through the network as a proxy for earnings. When you consider the title is really saying Price to Transaction Ratio, this is a smoke and mirrors way of trying to make conceptual entity look more like a traditional company for the novice investor. Looking at Bitcoin's growth outlook it sounds like a classic 90s internet boom startup's business plan. They're literally expecting a tidal wave of institutional investor money to crash in their lap. As long as Bitcoin shares are sold and valued in USD, it can't be used as a hedge against inflation like something with intrinsic value, so what returns or hedge value does it bring to attract massive fund investors? Institutional investors don't see the crypto currency market as established, or stable enough to carry that kind of money. Although I LOVE the idea, I honestly can't envision a path for Bitcoin to realize it's vision of a truly anonymous globally universal electronic currency. By cutting central banks out of financial transactions it steps on way too many powerful toes to leave it "unregulated". 1 Quote Link to comment
racerx Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 Sometimes you just have to let people find out for themselves..... Quote Link to comment
240zness Posted January 31, 2018 Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 That's how liberty is preserved.. I've always tried to invest in companies with sound and moral fundamentals , maybe in a field or industry I'm interested in or believe in. Makes the risk more comfortable. Another thread that struck a nerve RW. :thumbup: Quote Link to comment
Ratwagon1600 Posted January 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2018 That's how liberty is preserved.. Another thread that struck a nerve RW. :thumbup: Thanks, I do my best to entertain. Quote Link to comment
Ratwagon1600 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2018 Very stout analysis from an investigative mind there RTW. :thumbup: It's missing a key element though, taking any investment risk is balanced by it's future potential for profit. Au contraire re the profit potential risk. What I should have more clearly articulated was the fact that as part of this exercise I am "prepared to piss my initial investment up against the wall" i.e. if I do my dough, so be it (big call I know). I have set a ceiling of $500 to "invest" in crypto currencies and whislt I dont want to throw my money away, I can afford to do so. Of course there are not dissimilar risks with shares and other investments I am looking at. Thank you for the kind words about my summation of part of the risk analysis. As some of the qualificationsI hold are as an investigator and in risk assesment and analysis I thought I better make half an effort to look like I know what I am doing. :rofl: 1 Quote Link to comment
paradime Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 240zness with sound financial advise. Shorting something now, or soon is likely to make you that crazy money, and a far safer bet. Bitcoin looks attractive in a bull market, but when the champagne runs out and the hangover sets in, it's beauty will evaporates and you're left in a room with a $13 whore. Dow plunges 1,175 -- worst point decline in history - Feb. 5, 2018 Over $60 billion wiped off value of cryptocurrencies as bitcoin drops below $8,000 again. If you're still confident in bitcoin's future, now's the time to look for the troff and buy but... part of the reason for Bitcoin's crash to $6,831.84 today is that UK's Lloyds Bank following JP Morgan and Citi banned all cryptocurrency payments on its credit cards. Looks like the financial establishment's ability to tolerate their toes being stepped on is waning. 1 Quote Link to comment
Draker Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Buy the dips. 2 Quote Link to comment
Ratwagon1600 Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Buy the dips. I haven’t invested (yet). In the last couple of weeks nearly $4k has fallen off the bitcoin price. I’m monitoring this shit REALLY closely! #savvayrw! 1 Quote Link to comment
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.